Los Angeles Chargers 2024 futures odds: Will Harbaugh bring success to LA? (2024)

The Chargers have spent the past two decades consistently disappointing relative to their talent level.

Despite sustained stability at QB and rarely suffering from a lack of star power, they have never quite put it together. The 1994 Chargers reached the Super Bowl, but since then, this franchise has only made it out of the second round of the playoffs once in nine postseason appearances.

Justin Herbert has been in the NFL for four years now and has yet to even win a playoff game, but things do feel different now. The reason for that, of course, is Jim Harbaugh, who comes over as the new Chargers head coach.

Harbaugh is fresh off a National Championship at Michigan, and his previous stint in the NFL only lasted four seasons with the 49ers, but his first three years in San Francisco included a Super Bowl appearance and three trips to the NFC Championship Game.

So, there is excitement for the future prospects for the Chargers. Let's see how the betting markets view them.

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 Futures Odds

As you can see, even with the addition of Harbaugh at head coach, the books are still not placing the Chargers among the favorites to even make the playoffs. In fact, LA is a slight underdog to reach the postseason across the board at FanDuel, DraftKings and Caesars.

In terms of their odds to win the AFC, oddsmakers list them as the ninth-favorite to reach the Super Bowl, one spot behind the Browns and one spot ahead of the Steelers.

Of course, it is not a surprise to see them a heavy underdog to win the AFC West, as the Chiefs have had control of that division for roughly a decade now.

Let's get into our thoughts on their chances for 2024.

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 Betting Outlook

Even with the Chargers given plus odds to make the playoffs, there are reasons to believe they can at least make a run to the postseason given their head coach and quarterback combination.

Harbaugh has a proven winning track record everywhere he has gone, and Justin Herbert is still an elite quarterback.

Can Chargers offense survive skill-position exodus?

• PFF QB Unit Ranking: 5th
• PFF OL Unit Ranking: 12th
• PFF Receiving Unit Ranking: 31st
• PFF RB Unit Ranking: 26th

The biggest question mark with the Chargers offense, by far, is their lack of talent at the skill-positions. The Chargers spent their first round pick on a left tackle, Joe Alt from Notre Dame, as opposed to a wide receiver, showing their determination to fix the unit up front.

This year's No. 12-ranked OL marks the highest a Chargers offensive line unit has been ranked in Justin Herbert's career. The downside is that this year's roster features the second-worst group of receiving weapons and the seventh-worst running back room, both according to PFF.

The Chargers lost an astonishing 64.4% of their targets from last year's roster, as they traded away Keenan Allen, then lost Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton to free agency at the wide receiver position.

At running back, Austin Ekeler moved on to the Commnders via free agency and took his 74 targets with him. Unsurprisingly, the Chargers have the most vacated targets from their 2023 roster to 2024. They replaced Ekeler with oft-injured J.K. Dobbins and 29-year-old Gus Edwards, both from the Ravens.

They did draft a receiver high in Ladd McConkey out of Georgia at No. 34 in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he is still a rookie so he is an unknown. Outside of McConkey, they have last year's first round draft bust Quentin Johnson (who caught just 38 passes on 67 targets in 2023), and Joshua Palmer, who has never been more than a WR3 in his career.

There are already a ton of unknowns with Herbert's weapons, and we have not even mentioned the fact that Herbert himself is projected to miss the rest of training camp and all of the preseason with a foot injury.

The expectation is that he will be able to return for the season opener, but it is still concerning to begin the year by missing important reps with a new coaching staff and a bunch of new weapons due to injury.

Can Harbaugh fix Chargers defense?

• PFF Defensive Line Unit Ranking: 22nd
• PFF Linebacker Ranking: 31st
• PFF Secondary Ranking: 20th

Unfortunately for Harbaugh, the Chargers do not have a ton of talent at their disposal, as you can see from the PFF rankings above. They have a bottom-third unit in all three phases of the game, which is, you know, not great.

Their defensive line does have name value with veterans Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, but both of them are past their prime at 33 and 29 years old, respectively. While Mack is coming off an impressive 17-sack season a year ago, injuries have limited Bosa to just nine total starts over the last two years.

And outside of those two, this defense doesn't have much.

In the secondary, the Chargers did have two young corners from last year's team play well in Alohi Gilman and Asante Samuel Jr., but safety Derwin James had a down year and has struggled with injuries in his career as well.

Unfortunately there are not a lot of positive things to say about this Chargers defense, as they simply lack talent across the board. We have seen examples of a coaching and scheme change turning things around quickly for a defense, but it is hard to see a reality other than the Chargers having a below-average defense in 2024.

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 Best Bet

Win Total: Under 8.5 (+130) DraftKings

You could play it safe and take the under 9, but the better play here is to go with the under 8.5 at the better price.

While it feels scary to take a Jim Harbaugh-led team to win fewer than nine games and have a losing record, the reality is there are way too many unknowns with this team, and that is before even adding the injury risk of Justin Herbert.

The Chargers want to have a ground-and-pound, run-first approach on offense, but they do not have the proven running backs required to do so, and they also do not have enough receiving threats to scare the defense that way.

This bet could end up looking silly if Herbert stays healthy the entire year and lives up to his potential, but the under is the way to go here.

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